The tactics that gave Labour its huge majority in 2024 were no preparation for government – and the prime minister has proved he has nothing more to offer, says Guardian columnist Rafael Behr
Is very popular and cannot be an explanation for his unpopularity.
Yes it can. Reform voters see this move as disingenuous, so don’t change their mind on Starmer, while Labour’s base sees it as a betrayal so opinions sour.
I haven’t seen those polls. It just doesn’t seem plausible to me that all these Reform voters - most of whom haven’t yet voted for Reform, what with their popularity being low at the last election are so beguiled by Farage that they don’t believe any Labour proposal on reducing immigration. Those that are so beguiled… presumably believed Farage’s praise of the proposals.
Remember what has driven the increase in Reform’s popularity - it’s high levels of overall migration, conspicuity of small boat crossings, and conspicuity of asylum hotels. These things have all got worse, and Reform’s popularity rose on the back of it. We’re not talking about dyed-in-the-wool cult followers here, but people who believe (wrongly in my view) that immigration is a massive deal.
To back this up with real data, this Ipsos poll has 2024 Labour voters saying 64% to 4% (yes, four percent) that immigration is too high versus too low. (23% “about right”, rest “don’t know”). That’s 64% of people who voted Labour at the last election primed to like this announcement and clearly not so enamoured of Farage that they don’t trust Labour to implement it. Yeah, some of them may have been holding their noses to vote Labour for other reasons, but nose-holders exist in all camps, so I think this is strong reason to believe that the policy is likely overall to be very popular.
Yes it can. Reform voters see this move as disingenuous, so don’t change their mind on Starmer, while Labour’s base sees it as a betrayal so opinions sour.
I haven’t seen those polls. It just doesn’t seem plausible to me that all these Reform voters - most of whom haven’t yet voted for Reform, what with their popularity being low at the last election are so beguiled by Farage that they don’t believe any Labour proposal on reducing immigration. Those that are so beguiled… presumably believed Farage’s praise of the proposals.
Remember what has driven the increase in Reform’s popularity - it’s high levels of overall migration, conspicuity of small boat crossings, and conspicuity of asylum hotels. These things have all got worse, and Reform’s popularity rose on the back of it. We’re not talking about dyed-in-the-wool cult followers here, but people who believe (wrongly in my view) that immigration is a massive deal.
To back this up with real data, this Ipsos poll has 2024 Labour voters saying 64% to 4% (yes, four percent) that immigration is too high versus too low. (23% “about right”, rest “don’t know”). That’s 64% of people who voted Labour at the last election primed to like this announcement and clearly not so enamoured of Farage that they don’t trust Labour to implement it. Yeah, some of them may have been holding their noses to vote Labour for other reasons, but nose-holders exist in all camps, so I think this is strong reason to believe that the policy is likely overall to be very popular.